Roger Passman-Fischel 
Exploring Global Stability, U.S. Responses, and Trump’s Potential Influence
The Worst Outcomes: Diminished U.S. Power
China-Russia-North Korea Developing Alliance poses a severe threat to global stability. This coalition, blending China’s economic clout, Russia’s military power, and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, could undermine U.S. influence worldwide. The worst-case scenario would involve a coordinated strategy to weaken Western alliances like NATO, disrupt global supply chains, and support authoritarian regimes hostile to democracy.
China could leverage its economic dominance to align key nations in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, drawing them away from U.S. influence. Russia might escalate military interventions, particularly in Eastern Europe, testing NATO’s resolve. Meanwhile, North Korea could heighten tensions in the Pacific by expanding its nuclear capabilities, directly threatening South Korea, Japan, and even U.S. territories.
If this alliance effectively neutralizes Western responses, the U.S. risks losing its role as a global leader. Without strong partnerships and influence, America’s ability to shape international norms diminishes, paving the way for authoritarianism.
Likely Challenges: Erosion of American Alliances
This trilateral China-Russia-North Korea Developing Alliance could further strain U.S. alliances, especially if member states of NATO and other Western coalitions perceive America’s responses as weak or self-serving. The Trump Administration’s first term provides a cautionary tale: withdrawal from international agreements, such as the Paris Climate Accord, weakened multilateral cooperation. Similar isolationist tendencies might resurface in a second term, exacerbating fractures among Western allies.
For example, Trump’s “America First” policy could alienate European partners or encourage trade conflicts with allies like Japan and South Korea. Disunity would embolden adversaries, allowing the alliance to expand its influence unopposed.
Pragmatic Responses: Counterbalancing the Alliance
The U.S. must adopt a multifaceted strategy to counter this threat. Strengthening NATO, reinvigorating the Quad (U.S., Japan, India, Australia), and engaging in strategic economic partnerships could offset China’s influence. Diplomacy should focus on mitigating North Korea’s nuclear ambitions while undermining Russia’s leverage in Europe. Neutralizing the emergent China-Russia-North Korea Developing Alliance must be a priority of the new administration.
A second Trump Administration might embrace hardline tactics, including increased sanctions on China and Russia and military posturing in the Pacific. While such moves could showcase strength, they risk escalating tensions into confrontations. Strategic restraint and decisive actions would be more effective in maintaining stability.
The Best-Case Scenario: Renewed U.S. Leadership
In the best outcome, the United States would emerge stronger by revitalizing alliances and reaffirming its commitment to global stability. The U.S. could isolate the China-Russia-North Korea developing alliance by leading multilateral efforts to counter authoritarianism. Initiatives like a reinvigorated Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) could economically outcompete China, while renewed U.S.-EU cooperation would bolster NATO’s effectiveness.
A forward-thinking Trump Administration could surprise skeptics by investing in diplomacy and building coalitions, ensuring America remains a stabilizing force in an increasingly polarized world.
Sources Cited
Allison, G. (2017). Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?
Mearsheimer, J. J. (2018). The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realities.
Nye, J. S. (2020). Do Morals Matter? Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump.
Zakaria, F. (2021). Ten Lessons for a Post-Pandemic World.
Walt, S. M. (2018). “The Hell of Good Intentions.” Foreign Policy.
Suggestions for Further Reading
Kissinger, H. (2011). On China.
Gaddis, J. L. (2005). The Cold War: A New History.
Cha, V. (2018). The Impossible State: North Korea, Past and Future.
Kaplan, R. D. (2014). Asia’s Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific.
Wright, T. (2017). All Measures Short of War: The Contest for the Twenty-First Century and the Future of American Power.
Bremmer, I. (2018). Us vs. Them: The Failure of Globalism.
Haass, R. N. (2020). The World: A Brief Introduction.
Scobell, A., et al. (2018). China’s Grand Strategy.
Kotkin, S. (2015). Stalin: Waiting for Hitler, 1929–1941
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